MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION
SLIDE 7 - COMMUNICATING PROBABILITIES (AVOIDING POSSIBLE
– The answer to the above is that the chance / probability of
low rainfall in the 3rd year is still 1 in 3
– It is like rolling a dice or tossing a coin. What you have just
rolled or tossed does not affect the chance next time you do
– Any questions, feedback and clarification?
It is important to make sure that everyone is clear about what chance /
probability is. Later participants will be talking with farmers about this. Ask
participants to start thinking and discussing in their spare time how they would
explain chance / probability to smallholder farmers
We can now look at how this may be useful to farmers:
SLIDE 8 - WORKING OUT PROBABILITIES FOR KEY EVENTS
• What events might farmers be interested in knowing?
• In the next slide are some events
• We will ask farmers to select and add to this too.....
SLIDE 9 - EVENTS
Number of rain days
Start of season
Risk of replanting
Longest dry spell
Length of growing season
A Training Manual on Use of Climate Information and Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment for
Agricultural Extension Staff in Zimbabwe