MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION
First we need to be clear about what is meant by probability / risk / chance
Note: As a trainer it is very important that you are clear about what probability is
(which is the same as „risk‟ or „chance‟) before teaching this session. Take time
to run through it on your own and if necessary discuss with others or get support
if you are not clear. You may need to translate the terms probability / chance /
risk in to local language for the participants. The following section uses
examples and this is often the easiest way for participants to get a clear
SLIDE 3 – WHAT ARE PROBABILITIES?
• Probability is the same as CHANCE
• Examples .......
Tossing a coin – A probability / chance of 1 out of 2 of
getting a head i.e. ½
Throwing a dice – A probability / chance of 1 out of 6 of
getting a particular number i.e. 1/6
Probability is the same as „risk‟ or „chance‟.
We could ask “what is the chance of getting a head when I toss a coin?” –
Answer given in window above!
(you could get out a coin and ask people)
The answer is “one out of two”. This is the same as saying ½ (half) or 50%. This
is because: there are only two sides to the coin; I will get one side or the other
when I toss it; and there is nothing to make it more likely that one or other of the
sides will come up.
Here is another example. “What is the chance of getting a number 3 when I
throw a dice?”
The answer is “one out of six”. This is the same as saying 1/6. This is because:
there are six sides to a dice and only one of them has the number 3 on it.
A Training Manual on Use of Climate Information and Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment for
Agricultural Extension Staff in Zimbabwe