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MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION
Slide 13
What should we communicate with
farmers about events, why and how?
B. How?
Work with non and semi-literate farmers has
shown that farmers (with some initial help)
are very able to calculate probabilities using
graphs in the same way that you have just
done
C. Who else other than farmers should receive
the information on events? Why? (extension,
input suppliers, research, policy makers. To i)
help them in decision making and ii) support
farmers eg if farmers are going to grow small
grains, help develop markets and provide
seeds)
Slide 16
2012
Providing forecasts to farmers (as well
as probabilities)
What information is available to farmers
Slide 14
An example of probability and choice
Pay \$10. You may lose it Or win \$100
Would you want to know the probability of
winning the \$100 before you decide?
Imagine it is 4/10. Who would pay the \$10?
Imagine it is 7/10. Who would pay the \$10?
It is the same with farming and the weather. The
probability does NOT tell us what will definitely
happen, but knowing the probability may be
helpful to farmers in their planning
Slide 17
Providing probabilities to farmers AND
using forecasts
What climate information is available to
Seasonal Climate Forecast (What is it, when is it
available?)
We can add to this El Nino and La Nina (see later)
Short term forecasts (eg 10 day forecast)
Slide 15
A final point on probability
Different people have different attitudes to risk
For some people an 8/10 chance of winning \$100 may
seem good and they will pay \$10
For another person, an 8/10 chance may be too risky
as they have nowhere to get another \$10 if they don’t
win!
This is similar for many farmers. They take the risks
with their decisions and are affected by the results