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MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION
Slide 7
Communicating probabilities of
climate events with farmers - (avoiding
possible misunderstandings)
The answer to the above is that the chance /
probability of low rainfall in the 3rd year is still 1 in 3
It is like rolling a dice or tossing a coin. What you
have just rolled or tossed does not affect the
chance next time you do it!
Any questions, feedback and clarification?
Slide 10
2012
Exercise
For an event e.g. total rainfall
Decide on the characteristics of the event that you will
focus on e.g. for total rainfall, what amount (e.g.
below or above a certain no. of mm?)
Remember to keep focusing on what you think would
be useful to a farmer. Why have you chosen this
amount?
Work out the probabilities and summarise them
Discuss the management implications .........This is
important
Repeat the above for other events
Slide 8
Working out probabilities for key
events
What events might farmers be interested in
knowing?
In the next slide are some events
too.....
Slide 11
What should we communicate with farmers
A. What ?
1. Variability and trends ...IMPORTANT. Why? To see if there
are trends and changes and to avoid ‘maladaptation’. If farmers
and extension are responding to the wrong things/ trends they
are likely to waste everyone’s effort
2. Basic information to help with planning and decision making
eg what is the ‘normal’ and variation in total rainfall for my
area, what is the ‘normal’ and variation of length of season for
may area. This can help with choice of crops and varieties,
planting dates etc
3. Probabilities of events Which ones? Why? So that farmers
know the probabilities and can make better informed decisions.
e.g. they can each decide on what crop to grow, when to plant,
and what levels of inputs to invest.
Different farmers may make different decisions based on their
resources and their attitude to disk
Do we need any other events calculated?
Slide 9
Events
(definitions of each are on hand out)
Total rainfall
Number of rain days
Temperature
Start of season
Risk of replanting
Dry spells
Longest dry spell
Annual extremes
Length of growing
season
Slide 12
What should we communicate with
farmers about events, why and how?
What ?(continued)
4. For each event which characteristics
(eg levels of total rainfall) are most