MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION
In relation to climate change a scenario is a plausible and often simplified description
of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of
assumptions about the driving forces and key relationships. Scenarios may be
derived from projections, but are often based on additional information from other
sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline (IPCC, 2007).
Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially
by climate variability or change. The effect may be direct (e.g. a change is crop yield
in relation to a change in annual mean temperature or variability in the temperature
range) or indirect (e.g. damages caused by the increase in coastal flooding due to
sea level rise (IPCC, 2007).
Livelihoods are affected by long-term trends. It is important to differentiate between
trends that are likely to change as opposed to those that are likely to continue. Trends
include: population growth, violent conflict, national and international economic
growth, technology trends. It is also useful to note the difference between local and
national and international trends.
The characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that makes it
susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard. The level of vulnerability depends on
the characteristics of a person or group in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope
with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural or man-made hazard.
It is important not to confuse weather and climate, weather is the short term daily and
hourly changes in conditions such as temperature, rain, wind and humidity which can
only be predicted up to about 15 days in advance.
A Training Manual on Use of Climate Information and Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment for
Agricultural Extension Staff in Zimbabwe